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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Amherst College2.01+7.84vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.75+4.36vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.65+3.79vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.13+1.32vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.74+1.70vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.67+0.75vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.55-2.83vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire1.81+1.73vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.74-2.51vs Predicted
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10Harvard University1.67+0.20vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy1.30+0.24vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.21-3.43vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.32-4.78vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.82-1.55vs Predicted
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15Bates College2.26-6.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.84Amherst College2.010.0%1st Place
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6.36Tufts University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.79Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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5.32Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.7University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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6.75Connecticut College2.670.1%1st Place
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4.17Boston College3.550.2%1st Place
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9.73University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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6.49Bowdoin College2.740.1%1st Place
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10.2Harvard University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.24Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
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8.57Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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8.22Boston University2.320.1%1st Place
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12.45Northeastern University0.820.0%1st Place
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8.17Bates College2.260.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Black | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| James Altreuter | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Burd | 12.5% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Hunter Mumma | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Max Rollins | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Mullins | 18.5% | 17.4% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Neal Drake | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% |
| Tom Peabody | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Nick Waldo | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 11.6% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 20.0% | 20.6% |
| Erica Lush | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Ian Paice | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Matthew Wood | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 40.9% |
| David Pierce | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.