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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+4.95vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+2.49vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.70vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+3.07vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+1.36vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-0.03vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-0.49vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-1.30vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+0.31vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.12+1.05vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.93-2.29vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-3.70vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.28-1.28vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-4.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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4.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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3.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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7.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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5.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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6.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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6.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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11.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.120.0%1st Place
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8.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.930.0%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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11.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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9.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Stackpoole | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Richard Gleason | 16.1% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 22.1% | 19.6% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.3% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 1.2% |
| John McKenna | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Ella Withington | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Camille McGriff | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 8.0% |
| Christopher Adkins | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 20.9% | 26.2% |
| Caroline Martocci | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 6.4% |
| Aidan Brown | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% |
| Aiden Keister | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 42.6% |
| Connor Murphy | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.