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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+5.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+7.01vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.66vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+0.69vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+1.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.12+5.01vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-1.36vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.93+0.61vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-2.23vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-3.13vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-2.63vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-2.69vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-5.98vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.28-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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9.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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3.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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4.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.1%1st Place
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6.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.120.0%1st Place
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5.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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8.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.930.0%1st Place
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6.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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6.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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7.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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11.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McKenna | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 6.7% |
| Will Murray | 22.0% | 18.8% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 13.6% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Adkins | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 19.8% | 26.3% |
| Ella Withington | 12.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Caroline Martocci | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.2% |
| Lars Osell | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Camille McGriff | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Brown | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 4.4% |
| Connor Murphy | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 8.7% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Aiden Keister | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 19.5% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.