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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+5.59vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.62vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+1.57vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+2.26vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+1.15vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+3.34vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-1.37vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-1.23vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-1.89vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-1.60vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.12+0.02vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.28-0.19vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.93-4.47vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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3.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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4.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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6.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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5.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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6.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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7.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.120.0%1st Place
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11.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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8.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.930.0%1st Place
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9.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Osell | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Will Murray | 22.4% | 18.7% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.4% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 9.6% |
| Ella Withington | 11.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Camille McGriff | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Aidan Brown | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% |
| Christopher Adkins | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 21.6% | 25.9% |
| Aiden Keister | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 18.7% | 41.1% |
| Caroline Martocci | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 4.8% |
| Connor Murphy | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.