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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.70vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+4.85vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+1.58vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+2.26vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+1.04vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+0.15vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-0.58vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06+0.24vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-2.13vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.12+1.04vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-1.77vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-2.67vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.93-4.45vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.28-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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6.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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4.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.1%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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6.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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6.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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6.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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11.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.120.0%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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8.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.930.0%1st Place
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11.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 22.7% | 18.9% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Richard Gleason | 14.8% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Ella Withington | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Lars Osell | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Aidan Brown | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
| Camille McGriff | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Adkins | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 20.1% | 26.0% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.7% |
| Connor Murphy | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% |
| Caroline Martocci | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 4.3% |
| Aiden Keister | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 20.2% | 40.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.