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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+3.61vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.63vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+3.21vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54+2.82vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+2.17vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+0.13vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-1.37vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71+1.25vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+0.22vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-3.25vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.93-2.26vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-3.74vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.12-2.20vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.28-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.1%1st Place
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3.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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6.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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7.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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6.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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5.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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6.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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8.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.930.0%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.120.0%1st Place
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11.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Gleason | 14.8% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 22.1% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Camille McGriff | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Ella Withington | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Connor Murphy | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 10.2% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 8.0% |
| Lars Osell | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Caroline Martocci | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% |
| Aidan Brown | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 4.2% |
| Christopher Adkins | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 20.8% | 23.8% |
| Aiden Keister | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 18.0% | 42.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.