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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.61+6.78vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.00+4.40vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.09+3.15vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.50+4.57vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.13+4.78vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.83+1.40vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+2.82vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-0.08vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.06+1.54vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.71-2.49vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.96-0.22vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13-2.04vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.63-0.89vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.97-3.19vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.33-5.86vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-6.44vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.44-8.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.78Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.4Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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6.15Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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8.57Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.78Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.4Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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10.54Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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7.51Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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10.78Tufts University1.960.0%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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12.11Roger Williams University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.970.0%1st Place
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9.14Roger Williams University2.330.1%1st Place
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9.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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8.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Merson | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 11.1% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Riley Read | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% |
| Daniel Unangst | 8.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| George Higham | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
| Alex Fasolo | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Austen Freda | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% |
| Richie Gordon | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| William Bailey | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 21.9% |
| Michael Pinto | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 11.4% |
| John Walton | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| Walter Gnann | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% |
| Nathan Olmsted | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.