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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.44+7.50vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.96+8.59vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.09+3.16vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.71+3.65vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.00+1.40vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.50+2.62vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.33+2.16vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+1.75vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.97+1.90vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.06+0.19vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-1.35vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.83-4.83vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.13-2.88vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-5.75vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-5.17vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.61-7.95vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University1.63-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.440.1%1st Place
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10.59Tufts University1.960.0%1st Place
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6.16Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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7.65Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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6.4Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.62Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.16Roger Williams University2.330.1%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.1%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.970.0%1st Place
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10.19Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.1%1st Place
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7.17Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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10.12Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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8.05Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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12.02Roger Williams University1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Olmsted | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Austen Freda | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 10.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Alex Fasolo | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| John Walton | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Richie Gordon | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% |
| Michael Pinto | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% |
| George Higham | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% |
| Walter Gnann | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.4% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Riley Read | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% |
| Samuel Merson | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| William Bailey | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.