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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.71+6.45vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.00+4.39vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.09+3.15vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.50+4.59vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.44+3.53vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.33+3.37vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+1.06vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+1.77vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.96+1.92vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.13-0.20vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.83-3.64vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-2.18vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.63-0.88vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.06-3.54vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.61-7.04vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.97-5.28vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-7.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.45Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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6.39Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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6.15Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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8.59Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.440.1%1st Place
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9.37Roger Williams University2.330.0%1st Place
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8.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.1%1st Place
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10.92Tufts University1.960.0%1st Place
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9.8Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.36Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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12.12Roger Williams University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.46Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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7.96Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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10.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.970.0%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fasolo | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 11.5% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| Nathan Olmsted | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% |
| John Walton | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Richie Gordon | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% |
| Austen Freda | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% |
| Riley Read | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% |
| William Bailey | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 20.9% |
| George Higham | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% |
| Samuel Merson | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| Michael Pinto | 3.6% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.