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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.75+5.35vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.67+4.39vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.74+3.42vs Predicted
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4Bates College2.26+4.07vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.74+1.52vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.65+0.81vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.55-3.08vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.13-2.73vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy1.30+1.91vs Predicted
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10Harvard University1.67-0.06vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.55-3.88vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.41-1.42vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.21-4.93vs Predicted
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14Amherst College2.01-5.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.35Tufts University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.39Connecticut College2.670.1%1st Place
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6.42Bowdoin College2.740.1%1st Place
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8.07Bates College2.260.0%1st Place
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6.52University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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6.81Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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3.92Boston College3.550.2%1st Place
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5.27Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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10.91Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
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9.94Harvard University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.12Boston University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.58Northeastern University1.410.0%1st Place
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8.07Boston University2.210.1%1st Place
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8.64Amherst College2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Altreuter | 8.0% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Max Rollins | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Tom Peabody | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| David Pierce | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% |
| Hunter Mumma | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Mullins | 22.0% | 17.0% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Burd | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 20.1% | 27.8% |
| Nick Waldo | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 17.7% |
| Conor Fowler | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| David Hill | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 26.5% |
| Erica Lush | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Tyler Black | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.