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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.75+5.29vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.65+4.49vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.13+2.20vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.55+0.11vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.67+1.81vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.74+0.56vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.21+0.87vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.74-1.54vs Predicted
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9Amherst College2.01-0.12vs Predicted
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10Harvard University1.67-0.07vs Predicted
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11Bates College2.26-2.93vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.55-4.93vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.41-2.50vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy1.30-3.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29Tufts University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.49Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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5.2Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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4.11Boston College3.550.2%1st Place
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6.81Connecticut College2.670.1%1st Place
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6.56Bowdoin College2.740.1%1st Place
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7.87Boston University2.210.1%1st Place
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6.46University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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8.88Amherst College2.010.0%1st Place
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9.93Harvard University1.670.0%1st Place
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8.07Bates College2.260.1%1st Place
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7.07Boston University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.5Northeastern University1.410.0%1st Place
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10.76Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Altreuter | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Trevor Burd | 12.8% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Mullins | 17.7% | 18.6% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Rollins | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Tom Peabody | 8.7% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Erica Lush | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| Hunter Mumma | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Tyler Black | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 8.2% |
| Nick Waldo | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| David Pierce | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% |
| Conor Fowler | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| David Hill | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 24.2% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 18.5% | 28.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.