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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.29+5.50vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.22+6.27vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.39+3.38vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.42+5.03vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.40+1.29vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.37+0.82vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.07+5.26vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.09-0.77vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.59+1.72vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.270.00vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.06-4.18vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.45-6.12vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-4.20vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.00-2.43vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73-5.22vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.87-5.23vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.96-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.5Yale University2.299.2%1st Place
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8.27Brown University2.225.5%1st Place
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6.38Dartmouth College2.399.7%1st Place
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9.03University of Rhode Island1.424.3%1st Place
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6.29Roger Williams University2.4010.8%1st Place
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6.82Brown University2.378.4%1st Place
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12.26Boston University1.072.5%1st Place
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7.23Boston College2.097.8%1st Place
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10.72Northeastern University1.592.5%1st Place
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10.0Tufts University1.273.2%1st Place
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6.82Bowdoin College2.0610.0%1st Place
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5.88Harvard University2.4511.9%1st Place
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8.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.8%1st Place
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11.57Connecticut College1.002.1%1st Place
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9.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.733.9%1st Place
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10.77University of Vermont0.873.1%1st Place
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15.87Olin College of Engineering-0.960.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 21.8% | 9.2% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 4.1% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 2.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Robby Meek | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| William Hurd | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 1.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 3.3% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 71.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.