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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.22+7.15vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.39+4.16vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.06+4.00vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.40+2.49vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.29+1.41vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.42+2.99vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09+0.19vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.27+2.08vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+3.17vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.37-3.14vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.87-0.12vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.00-0.58vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73-3.02vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.45-8.03vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-6.34vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.59-5.22vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.96-1.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.15Brown University2.226.2%1st Place
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6.16Dartmouth College2.3911.0%1st Place
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7.0Bowdoin College2.068.1%1st Place
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6.49Roger Williams University2.409.7%1st Place
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6.41Yale University2.298.7%1st Place
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8.99University of Rhode Island1.424.8%1st Place
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7.19Boston College2.097.1%1st Place
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10.08Tufts University1.273.5%1st Place
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12.17Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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6.86Brown University2.379.1%1st Place
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10.88University of Vermont0.873.4%1st Place
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11.42Connecticut College1.002.9%1st Place
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9.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.733.5%1st Place
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5.97Harvard University2.4511.8%1st Place
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8.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.585.1%1st Place
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10.78Northeastern University1.592.9%1st Place
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15.83Olin College of Engineering-0.960.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 2.1% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 21.2% | 9.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 3.2% |
| William Hurd | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 5.5% |
| Luke Zylinski | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% |
| Robby Meek | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 4.1% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 71.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.