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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+5.43vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.40+4.55vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.06+3.90vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.87+6.83vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.45+0.98vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+4.00vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09+0.27vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.22+0.18vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.42-0.11vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.37-3.35vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.89+0.19vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.29-5.69vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.27-3.08vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-2.99vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-6.47vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-3.51vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.96-1.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43Dartmouth College2.398.8%1st Place
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6.55Roger Williams University2.408.6%1st Place
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6.9Bowdoin College2.068.5%1st Place
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10.83University of Vermont0.873.0%1st Place
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5.98Harvard University2.459.7%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.734.0%1st Place
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7.27Boston College2.097.8%1st Place
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8.18Brown University2.225.3%1st Place
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8.89University of Rhode Island1.425.4%1st Place
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6.65Brown University2.3710.5%1st Place
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11.19Connecticut College0.892.7%1st Place
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6.31Yale University2.2910.3%1st Place
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9.92Tufts University1.273.9%1st Place
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11.01Northeastern University1.592.8%1st Place
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8.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.586.6%1st Place
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12.49Boston University1.071.9%1st Place
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15.88Olin College of Engineering-0.960.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 3.4% |
| Robby Meek | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 2.5% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Mason Stang | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Blake Behrens | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 4.5% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 1.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 3.6% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Porter Bell | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 21.9% | 9.8% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 10.7% | 71.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.