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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University2.01+10.51vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+6.74vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.46+6.87vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.89+3.77vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.41+4.71vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26+4.44vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.50+2.42vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.99-0.63vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.28+1.36vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.69-1.01vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23-0.38vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.22-5.12vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.25-6.65vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.09-7.19vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-2.67vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-7.44vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.01-9.56vs Predicted
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18-2.48-0.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.51North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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9.87Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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7.77Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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9.71George Washington University2.410.0%1st Place
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10.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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9.42Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.37Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
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8.99Tulane University2.690.1%1st Place
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10.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.0%1st Place
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6.88Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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6.81College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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12.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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8.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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7.44Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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17.84-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 0.6% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Belda | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Soenke Jordan | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 0.4% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 0.2% |
| Marcus Huttunen | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.1% |
| Keiran James Golden | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bayless | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paris Henken | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 22.9% | 1.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 96.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.