← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.25+5.67vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+6.70vs Predicted
-
3Brown University2.89+5.09vs Predicted
-
4Tulane University2.69+4.60vs Predicted
-
5College of Charleston3.09+2.08vs Predicted
-
6Roger Williams University2.50+3.39vs Predicted
-
7Stanford University2.99+0.42vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University3.22-1.56vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-0.49vs Predicted
-
10Jacksonville University2.46-0.14vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-0.47vs Predicted
-
12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23-1.10vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-0.79vs Predicted
-
14University of Rhode Island2.28-3.98vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University2.41-5.22vs Predicted
-
16Boston College3.01-8.61vs Predicted
-
17North Carolina State University2.01-5.43vs Predicted
-
18-2.48-0.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.67U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
-
8.7University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
-
8.09Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
-
8.6Tulane University2.690.1%1st Place
-
7.08College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
-
9.39Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
-
7.42Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
-
6.44Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
8.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
-
9.86Jacksonville University2.460.1%1st Place
-
10.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
-
10.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.0%1st Place
-
12.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
-
10.02University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
-
9.78George Washington University2.410.0%1st Place
-
7.39Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
-
11.57North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
-
17.84-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bayless | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Belda | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Huttunen | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Paris Henken | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Telmo Basterra | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 0.2% |
| Walter Gnann | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 0.2% |
| Keiran James Golden | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 0.9% |
| John McKenna | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 21.5% | 1.1% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 0.3% |
| Soenke Jordan | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 0.6% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 96.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.