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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.09+6.39vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.25+4.66vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.89+5.17vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.99+3.46vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.28+5.29vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.50+3.53vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+5.45vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.22-1.42vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.46+0.74vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.74-1.17vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.69-2.07vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University2.01-0.21vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-2.68vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-5.73vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.01-7.65vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-7.31vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23-6.30vs Predicted
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18-2.48-0.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.17Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.46Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.29University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
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9.53Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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6.58Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.74Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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8.83George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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8.93Tulane University2.690.1%1st Place
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11.79North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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8.27University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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7.35Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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8.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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10.7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.0%1st Place
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17.83-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Henken | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bayless | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Belda | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.9% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 0.2% |
| John McKenna | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 22.7% | 1.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 0.1% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Marcus Huttunen | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Adam Larson | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 18.7% | 1.0% |
| Walter Gnann | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Pierce | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack DeNatale | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Keiran James Golden | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 0.3% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 96.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.