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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.25+5.76vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.09+5.40vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+3.85vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.74+4.45vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.50+4.43vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.70+2.73vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.99+0.51vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.89-0.07vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.36+1.20vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-1.10vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.01-3.37vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University2.01-0.19vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23-2.51vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.46-4.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-4.50vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-7.27vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-4.55vs Predicted
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18-2.48-0.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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7.4College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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6.85Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.45George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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9.43Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.73Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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7.51Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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7.93Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.2University of Rhode Island2.360.0%1st Place
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8.9University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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7.63Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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11.81North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.0%1st Place
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9.39Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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10.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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8.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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17.84-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bayless | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Paris Henken | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 0.2% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Belda | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Parker Colantuono | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Pierce | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Adam Larson | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 1.1% |
| Keiran James Golden | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 0.5% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 0.3% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 0.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 22.9% | 0.8% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 96.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.