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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.09+6.38vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.99+5.65vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+3.72vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.69+4.60vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.25+1.45vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.01+1.35vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.46+2.72vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.89-0.21vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.74-0.58vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University2.01+1.65vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-2.24vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.28-1.31vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.01-1.71vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-3.89vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-2.61vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.50-6.51vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-8.29vs Predicted
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18-2.48-0.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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7.65Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.72Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.6Tulane University2.690.1%1st Place
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6.45U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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7.35Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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9.72Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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7.79Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.42George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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11.65North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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10.69University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
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11.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.010.0%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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12.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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9.49Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.71University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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17.83-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Henken | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Huttunen | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Bayless | 10.6% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Belda | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Michael Ehnot | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larson | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 0.9% |
| Charles Carraway | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 0.2% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 0.6% |
| Gloria Kevliciute | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 0.6% |
| Walter Gnann | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 0.2% |
| John McKenna | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 23.0% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 0.1% |
| David Eastwood | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 96.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.