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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+5.08vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.99+5.00vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.70+5.18vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+4.22vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.89+2.30vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.46+3.29vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.01+0.04vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University2.01+2.53vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.74-0.79vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-0.33vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.50-1.90vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.01-1.18vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.09-6.18vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.31vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.25-8.86vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-6.03vs Predicted
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17-2.48-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.0Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.18Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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7.3Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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9.29Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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7.04Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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10.53North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.21George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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9.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.0%1st Place
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9.1Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.010.0%1st Place
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6.82College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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11.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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6.14U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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9.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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16.93-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| David Eastwood | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Belda | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 0.3% |
| Michael Ehnot | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Gloria Kevliciute | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 15.6% | 0.3% |
| Paris Henken | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 22.7% | 0.4% |
| Connor Bayless | 12.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 98.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.