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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+6.97vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.74+5.92vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.99+4.09vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+2.27vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.25+0.97vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.70+2.30vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.46+2.17vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.09-1.38vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.50+0.12vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University2.01+0.73vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-1.03vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-0.34vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.01-5.86vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.01-3.09vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-5.27vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.89-8.53vs Predicted
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17University of Oregon-2.48-0.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.97University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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7.92George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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7.09Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.27Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.3Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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9.17Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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6.62College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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9.12Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.73North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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11.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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7.14Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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10.91St. Mary's College of Maryland2.010.0%1st Place
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9.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.0%1st Place
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7.47Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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16.94University of Oregon-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Eastwood | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bayless | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 0.1% |
| Paris Henken | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larson | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 0.2% |
| Walter Gnann | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 24.2% | 0.5% |
| Jack DeNatale | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Gloria Kevliciute | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 0.3% |
| Richard Gleason | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 0.3% |
| Olivia Belda | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 98.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.