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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.25+4.87vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.50+6.83vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.99+4.02vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+2.25vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.93vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University2.01+4.92vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26+2.82vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.74-0.18vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23+1.14vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-2.07vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.70-2.72vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.01-5.05vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.46-3.78vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston2.25-4.05vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-3.28vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.89-8.58vs Predicted
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17University of Oregon-2.48-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.87U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.83Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.02Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.25Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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10.92North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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7.82George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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10.14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.0%1st Place
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7.93University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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8.28Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.95Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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9.22Jacksonville University2.460.1%1st Place
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9.95College of Charleston2.250.0%1st Place
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11.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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7.42Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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16.93University of Oregon-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bayless | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.4% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 0.2% |
| Walter Gnann | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Keiran James Golden | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 0.4% |
| David Eastwood | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Jack DeNatale | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 0.2% |
| Hunter Skinner | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 25.0% | 1.1% |
| Olivia Belda | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Lewis | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 97.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.