Race 4A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Snead 12.9% 12.0% 11.3% 11.4% 11.6% 11.4% 6.9% 7.8% 7.4% 3.8% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
George Higham 11.1% 12.4% 11.0% 11.5% 12.6% 9.1% 7.9% 8.6% 8.0% 4.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Michael Pinto 9.4% 11.0% 11.7% 12.1% 8.7% 9.7% 11.4% 8.6% 7.4% 5.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Miles Williams 13.4% 10.0% 11.0% 13.2% 9.9% 9.7% 8.7% 8.4% 6.6% 5.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Connor Sheridan 12.6% 13.3% 11.6% 10.4% 8.8% 9.8% 10.7% 7.0% 7.3% 4.8% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Grant Adam 8.1% 8.5% 8.3% 9.1% 8.7% 9.5% 10.7% 8.6% 9.2% 9.6% 6.5% 2.8% 0.4%
Peter Cronin 10.2% 9.3% 10.0% 7.3% 8.2% 10.0% 10.2% 10.1% 8.8% 7.8% 5.4% 2.6% 0.1%
Luke Hosek 5.9% 7.1% 7.5% 6.1% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0% 11.3% 12.2% 11.2% 9.1% 4.7% 0.3%
Luke Quine 3.7% 4.4% 3.4% 5.6% 5.5% 4.7% 7.2% 8.2% 11.3% 13.4% 17.6% 12.1% 2.9%
Chase Reynolds 9.3% 8.3% 10.4% 8.2% 11.0% 9.9% 7.9% 10.6% 8.2% 8.1% 5.1% 2.5% 0.5%
Harry Stevenson 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 4.1% 4.4% 5.0% 10.2% 16.1% 32.7% 16.6%
James Sullivan 1.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 5.4% 6.8% 12.6% 20.4% 24.8% 8.0%
Nick Ferrara 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.8% 2.9% 6.1% 14.0% 70.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.