Race 5A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Miles Williams 12.3% 12.7% 10.2% 11.7% 11.2% 8.8% 12.2% 7.3% 6.8% 3.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Chase Reynolds 9.1% 8.9% 9.3% 8.9% 11.3% 8.7% 10.2% 10.7% 9.1% 9.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Grant Adam 7.2% 8.7% 8.7% 9.6% 8.5% 10.4% 8.9% 11.9% 10.2% 10.2% 4.8% 0.9% 0.0%
George Higham 12.4% 10.9% 12.6% 10.9% 11.5% 10.4% 7.9% 9.4% 6.3% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0%
Luke Hosek 7.3% 6.5% 7.1% 8.0% 8.2% 7.6% 9.6% 11.1% 12.2% 10.3% 9.3% 2.7% 0.1%
Michael Pinto 11.2% 11.3% 12.7% 11.0% 9.8% 10.4% 9.1% 7.6% 8.7% 4.6% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Connor Sheridan 13.1% 12.8% 11.1% 10.9% 10.5% 11.4% 7.9% 7.4% 7.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Peter Cronin 8.1% 10.2% 10.0% 8.2% 9.3% 9.9% 11.0% 10.4% 9.8% 8.4% 4.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Emma Snead 12.5% 12.6% 12.6% 10.9% 10.3% 10.9% 8.4% 7.6% 7.7% 4.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Luke Quine 4.5% 3.4% 3.8% 6.6% 5.2% 5.9% 8.7% 9.5% 10.9% 18.1% 16.1% 5.7% 1.6%
Harry Stevenson 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 2.1% 2.5% 3.8% 3.3% 4.5% 6.8% 12.6% 28.8% 23.1% 9.0%
Nick Ferrara 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 0.9% 1.8% 4.0% 9.6% 29.2% 49.6%
Will Rudaz 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 4.0% 13.2% 34.4% 39.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.