Race 11A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Michael Pinto 10.8% 12.0% 10.8% 9.9% 11.1% 9.6% 10.8% 10.0% 6.2% 5.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Chase Reynolds 9.3% 8.9% 8.5% 9.6% 11.5% 9.3% 10.0% 9.0% 10.5% 8.4% 3.5% 1.4% 0.1%
Luke Hosek 4.8% 6.9% 8.4% 7.9% 6.7% 7.8% 9.8% 12.1% 11.6% 12.4% 9.7% 1.9% 0.0%
George Higham 12.5% 10.5% 13.5% 10.4% 11.3% 10.1% 9.0% 8.4% 7.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Miles Williams 13.6% 12.4% 11.4% 11.4% 9.6% 10.3% 10.1% 7.5% 7.0% 4.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Grant Adam 7.9% 8.9% 8.8% 9.7% 9.1% 9.8% 9.9% 10.1% 10.4% 7.8% 6.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Connor Sheridan 13.2% 12.8% 11.3% 11.1% 10.5% 11.0% 8.8% 6.0% 8.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Peter Cronin 8.4% 10.0% 9.3% 8.8% 9.9% 10.7% 10.3% 10.3% 9.9% 8.2% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Emma Snead 12.3% 12.7% 12.2% 12.1% 9.7% 11.8% 7.1% 8.2% 6.7% 5.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Luke Quine 4.9% 3.1% 3.7% 5.3% 6.9% 4.2% 8.7% 10.6% 10.5% 18.7% 15.9% 5.9% 1.6%
Harry Stevenson 1.4% 0.7% 1.4% 2.5% 2.0% 3.8% 3.7% 4.3% 7.2% 12.9% 27.8% 23.2% 9.1%
Nick Ferrara 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 1.6% 2.1% 4.0% 9.4% 29.4% 49.6%
Will Rudaz 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 1.9% 2.0% 3.9% 13.4% 34.4% 39.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.