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📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.32+5.27vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.16vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.98+1.62vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.63+1.56vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.19+1.81vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-0.25vs Predicted
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7Brown University0.64+0.91vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.74-2.76vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University0.95-1.56vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.56+0.99vs Predicted
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11Bates College-0.56-0.01vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-1.93+1.00vs Predicted
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13Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09-1.20vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.63-8.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.27University of Vermont1.320.1%1st Place
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3.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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4.62Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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5.56University of Rhode Island1.630.1%1st Place
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6.81Roger Williams University1.190.1%1st Place
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5.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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7.91Brown University0.640.0%1st Place
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5.24Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.44Roger Williams University0.950.1%1st Place
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10.99University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
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10.99Bates College-0.560.0%1st Place
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13.0Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
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11.8Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
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5.46Roger Williams University1.630.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Lamosse | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 25.0% | 24.2% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Rosow | 13.3% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Gary | 8.9% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Martz | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Nils Tullberg | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Anne Berg | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 22.4% | 21.2% | 10.8% |
| Greta Shuster | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 17.8% | 21.2% | 23.9% | 8.8% |
| Patrick Stevenson | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 10.1% | 20.1% | 57.9% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 10.9% | 21.3% | 28.2% | 22.2% |
| William Bailey | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.