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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University0.37+7.59vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.32+4.02vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.63+2.34vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University0.95+3.23vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-1.86vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-0.41vs Predicted
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7Bates College-0.56+3.61vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.74-2.96vs Predicted
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9Brown University0.64-0.95vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College-1.93+2.98vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.98-6.43vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.63-6.60vs Predicted
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13Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09-1.28vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-0.56-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.59Roger Williams University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.02University of Vermont1.320.1%1st Place
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5.34Roger Williams University1.630.1%1st Place
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7.23Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
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3.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.3%1st Place
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5.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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10.61Bates College-0.560.0%1st Place
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5.04Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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8.05Brown University0.640.0%1st Place
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12.98Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
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4.57Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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5.4University of Rhode Island1.630.1%1st Place
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11.72Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
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10.71University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Leahy | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 15.0% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 1.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| William Bailey | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 25.9% | 21.0% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Greta Shuster | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 16.7% | 20.7% | 19.7% | 8.2% |
| Nils Tullberg | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Stevenson | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 9.6% | 17.1% | 62.0% |
| Connor Rosow | 13.3% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Gary | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 18.9% | 32.0% | 19.6% |
| Anne Berg | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 18.1% | 21.6% | 19.6% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.