← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University1.51+4.77vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.18vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University1.63+2.57vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+1.70vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University1.98-0.21vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island1.63-0.33vs Predicted
-
7Salve Regina University1.74-1.93vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont1.32-1.64vs Predicted
-
9Roger Williams University0.37-0.11vs Predicted
-
10Bates College-0.56+0.97vs Predicted
-
11Roger Williams University0.95-3.58vs Predicted
-
12Middlebury College-1.93+1.00vs Predicted
-
13Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09-1.22vs Predicted
-
14University of New Hampshire-0.56-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.77Brown University1.510.1%1st Place
-
3.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.3%1st Place
-
5.57Roger Williams University1.630.1%1st Place
-
5.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
-
4.79Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
-
5.67University of Rhode Island1.630.1%1st Place
-
5.07Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
-
6.36University of Vermont1.320.1%1st Place
-
8.89Roger Williams University0.370.0%1st Place
-
10.97Bates College-0.560.0%1st Place
-
7.42Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
-
13.0Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
-
11.78Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
-
10.81University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dellenbaugh | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 25.8% | 21.1% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Rosow | 11.0% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Gary | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nils Tullberg | 11.4% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Leahy | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 17.8% | 16.9% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 1.1% |
| Greta Shuster | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 16.2% | 22.3% | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Stevenson | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 19.9% | 58.8% |
| Victor Lomba | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 10.8% | 18.9% | 29.6% | 22.0% |
| Anne Berg | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 17.8% | 23.4% | 20.5% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.