Race 11B

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Nicholas Reeser 26.3% 19.9% 16.6% 10.8% 7.6% 7.7% 4.7% 3.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
William Bailey 8.9% 11.4% 9.7% 10.4% 8.8% 10.4% 10.8% 10.7% 7.7% 7.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Nils Tullberg 10.5% 10.5% 9.7% 9.5% 11.5% 9.8% 10.6% 9.4% 8.6% 5.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Edward Gary 7.2% 9.6% 9.8% 10.5% 10.7% 10.6% 9.7% 9.2% 8.4% 9.3% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Peter McGonagle 6.7% 8.2% 10.6% 10.9% 9.9% 9.6% 8.7% 10.1% 10.9% 8.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Calvin Lamosse 7.3% 4.4% 7.1% 9.0% 9.9% 8.0% 9.0% 11.4% 11.4% 10.3% 7.9% 3.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Spencer Dellenbaugh 9.1% 8.8% 8.8% 9.3% 10.2% 10.3% 10.3% 9.3% 10.3% 6.6% 4.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Anne Berg 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.9% 4.0% 6.5% 16.6% 23.3% 23.3% 9.3%
Connor Rosow 11.5% 13.3% 11.5% 12.7% 10.9% 11.5% 8.7% 9.0% 5.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Patrick Stevenson 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 3.9% 10.5% 19.9% 59.3%
Victor Lomba 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.7% 2.3% 4.0% 13.2% 19.7% 31.7% 21.6%
Greta Shuster 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 3.0% 3.5% 8.4% 19.1% 26.5% 19.8% 9.4%
Colin Martz 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 6.2% 8.9% 9.4% 11.1% 8.9% 10.7% 12.9% 8.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Caylin Schnoor 4.2% 4.8% 5.5% 6.3% 6.8% 6.1% 9.3% 9.3% 14.0% 15.3% 11.0% 5.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.