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📊 Prediction Accuracy
83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.24+4.35vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+1.25vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.83vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.91-0.01vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83-2.43vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71+0.36vs Predicted
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7Villanova University0.91-1.14vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.21-0.76vs Predicted
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9Villanova University-0.85+0.17vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-1.09-0.42vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.19-1.17vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-2.07-1.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.35U. S. Naval Academy1.240.1%1st Place
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3.25Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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3.83University of Pennsylvania2.030.1%1st Place
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3.99Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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2.57University of Pennsylvania2.830.3%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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5.86Villanova University0.910.1%1st Place
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7.24Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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9.17Villanova University-0.850.0%1st Place
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9.58Princeton University-1.090.0%1st Place
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9.83University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.190.0%1st Place
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10.96University of Delaware-2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin MacGillivray | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 18.7% | 21.8% | 19.9% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 14.7% | 15.3% | 16.5% | 15.9% | 16.2% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 12.7% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 17.9% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 33.0% | 24.9% | 16.7% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Murphy | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 17.0% | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Owen Ward | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 19.1% | 19.4% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Alex Maurer | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 19.4% | 24.0% | 20.4% | 7.9% |
| Quinn Gabel | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 15.9% | 23.3% | 25.6% | 14.6% |
| Zachary Vance | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 21.8% | 25.7% | 20.1% |
| Tamryn Whyte | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 20.7% | 55.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.