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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.35+1.30vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute0.94+2.49vs Predicted
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3Princeton University-0.35+3.31vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09-1.44vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-1.26vs Predicted
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6Villanova University-0.08-0.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.17-3.02vs Predicted
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8University of Delaware-1.42-0.34vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-1.85-0.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.3University of Pennsylvania2.350.4%1st Place
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4.49Webb Institute0.940.1%1st Place
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6.31Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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2.56University of Pennsylvania2.090.3%1st Place
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3.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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5.88Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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3.98U. S. Naval Academy1.170.1%1st Place
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7.66University of Delaware-1.420.0%1st Place
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8.08Princeton University-1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 36.7% | 25.6% | 19.5% | 10.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 6.0% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 18.3% | 22.1% | 16.7% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 0.3% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 18.3% | 28.7% | 21.7% | 5.7% |
| Samuel Gavula | 27.7% | 27.3% | 20.2% | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dax Thompson | 12.7% | 16.4% | 18.0% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Murray | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 24.0% | 26.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% |
| Robert Ziman | 10.9% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 20.7% | 20.8% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Alexandra Starr | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 36.6% | 33.5% |
| Lucy Norton | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 9.4% | 21.6% | 57.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.