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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26+2.98vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.35+0.56vs Predicted
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3Princeton University-0.35+3.44vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09-1.29vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.69-1.67vs Predicted
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6Villanova University-0.08-0.01vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.17-2.82vs Predicted
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8University of Delaware-1.42-0.31vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-1.85-0.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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2.56University of Pennsylvania2.350.3%1st Place
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6.44Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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2.71University of Pennsylvania2.090.3%1st Place
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3.33Webb Institute1.690.2%1st Place
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5.99Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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4.18U. S. Naval Academy1.170.1%1st Place
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7.69University of Delaware-1.420.0%1st Place
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8.12Princeton University-1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dax Thompson | 11.6% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 18.0% | 23.8% | 12.3% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 27.9% | 26.7% | 21.1% | 14.6% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 19.2% | 30.6% | 22.7% | 5.7% |
| Samuel Gavula | 26.1% | 24.9% | 19.5% | 16.6% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 18.5% | 18.8% | 18.2% | 17.3% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 26.5% | 27.0% | 14.9% | 3.1% |
| Robert Ziman | 10.0% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 18.4% | 21.7% | 16.6% | 7.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Alexandra Starr | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 14.1% | 37.0% | 33.6% |
| Lucy Norton | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 10.8% | 22.0% | 57.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.