Race 1A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Mariner Fagan 21.4% 20.3% 17.2% 12.8% 9.7% 8.4% 5.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Hennessey 16.7% 17.1% 16.0% 13.0% 12.2% 8.6% 7.3% 4.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Benton Amthor 18.8% 17.5% 15.8% 13.6% 10.6% 9.2% 6.6% 4.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Parker Purrington 5.5% 6.8% 6.3% 9.4% 9.5% 10.5% 10.2% 10.4% 9.2% 9.7% 7.0% 4.4% 1.1% 0.0%
Lily Flack 2.6% 2.3% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9% 5.6% 5.4% 8.2% 8.7% 13.2% 12.3% 17.4% 13.8% 0.0%
Oscar MacGillivray 5.3% 4.3% 4.3% 7.5% 8.7% 8.5% 8.7% 10.4% 13.6% 8.3% 10.4% 7.6% 2.4% 0.0%
John Patrick Panarella 5.8% 4.6% 5.5% 7.4% 7.6% 7.5% 8.4% 9.5% 13.0% 11.4% 9.1% 7.2% 3.0% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.5% 3.4% 4.7% 5.4% 7.5% 10.8% 14.2% 20.2% 22.1% 0.0%
Brian Fox 4.4% 5.1% 5.3% 5.6% 6.6% 9.9% 8.6% 12.0% 11.2% 10.0% 10.8% 6.9% 3.6% 0.0%
John Vail 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.9% 4.9% 5.8% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1% 12.5% 13.9% 12.6% 11.7% 0.0%
Stewart Gurnell 7.0% 8.2% 9.6% 10.0% 11.3% 10.5% 11.5% 10.0% 7.8% 7.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Tanner Kelly 7.8% 7.0% 10.0% 9.8% 10.3% 9.7% 11.1% 11.9% 9.3% 6.0% 4.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Constantyn van der Voort 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 4.0% 3.1% 4.3% 8.2% 12.7% 18.4% 41.2% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.5% 3.4% 4.7% 5.4% 7.5% 10.8% 14.2% 20.2% 22.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.