Race 5A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Mariner Fagan 21.1% 21.3% 16.6% 12.5% 9.9% 8.1% 5.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Hennessey 16.2% 17.7% 17.1% 13.8% 9.9% 10.2% 6.3% 5.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Benton Amthor 20.2% 16.5% 16.6% 13.5% 10.6% 8.8% 6.9% 4.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Parker Purrington 5.5% 6.8% 6.8% 8.3% 10.5% 9.2% 11.9% 10.4% 10.7% 9.4% 6.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Oscar MacGillivray 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 7.3% 7.4% 9.6% 8.9% 10.0% 11.3% 10.9% 9.9% 7.3% 1.8% 0.0%
John Patrick Panarella 5.3% 4.4% 5.4% 7.0% 8.4% 8.4% 9.5% 11.7% 12.9% 10.0% 9.6% 5.9% 1.5% 0.0%
John Vail 4.1% 2.5% 3.2% 4.0% 5.3% 6.8% 6.5% 8.5% 9.8% 13.8% 16.5% 14.3% 4.7% 0.0%
Lily Flack 1.7% 3.3% 2.7% 3.7% 4.6% 4.3% 5.8% 7.7% 10.1% 14.3% 14.8% 21.2% 5.8% 0.0%
Tanner Kelly 8.2% 8.5% 8.9% 11.0% 10.9% 10.9% 11.7% 8.2% 8.5% 6.4% 4.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Brian Fox 4.8% 5.4% 5.6% 6.1% 7.2% 9.6% 10.3% 10.6% 11.3% 10.2% 10.1% 6.4% 2.4% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 5.1% 4.1% 3.8% 6.7% 8.9% 10.7% 17.2% 24.3% 12.3% 0.0%
Stewart Gurnell 6.6% 6.2% 9.6% 10.0% 9.4% 9.0% 11.4% 12.7% 9.1% 8.5% 4.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Parker Bunting 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 2.2% 2.5% 3.0% 5.3% 13.1% 69.5% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 5.1% 4.1% 3.8% 6.7% 8.9% 10.7% 17.2% 24.3% 12.3% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.