Race 6A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Oscar MacGillivray 4.8% 3.8% 4.9% 6.9% 7.8% 10.3% 9.6% 10.1% 12.3% 11.7% 10.0% 6.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Mariner Fagan 23.8% 19.8% 13.6% 17.3% 8.0% 7.8% 4.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Hennessey 16.3% 17.1% 14.4% 14.0% 13.9% 9.4% 5.6% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Stewart Gurnell 5.1% 9.8% 9.1% 8.8% 10.3% 11.2% 11.2% 9.9% 9.4% 7.3% 5.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 4.9% 7.0% 7.3% 10.7% 16.9% 26.7% 11.3% 0.0%
Benton Amthor 19.4% 17.7% 16.8% 12.4% 10.8% 9.5% 5.7% 3.7% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Parker Purrington 7.7% 5.6% 8.9% 6.9% 9.4% 9.5% 12.0% 10.7% 10.5% 9.6% 5.4% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Tanner Kelly 7.9% 8.8% 9.4% 10.2% 11.1% 11.2% 12.7% 9.7% 7.4% 6.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
John Vail 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.2% 6.2% 8.9% 11.1% 13.6% 15.5% 16.4% 5.2% 0.0%
Lily Flack 2.4% 1.8% 4.4% 3.4% 3.2% 5.9% 5.6% 7.3% 11.6% 11.7% 16.8% 17.0% 8.9% 0.0%
Brian Fox 4.1% 4.9% 6.6% 6.7% 9.8% 7.4% 10.4% 12.7% 11.3% 9.7% 9.1% 5.7% 1.6% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 4.9% 7.0% 7.3% 10.7% 16.9% 26.7% 11.3% 0.0%
John Patrick Panarella 3.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.4% 7.1% 8.0% 10.4% 11.2% 10.3% 13.0% 11.1% 7.0% 1.2% 0.0%
Parker Bunting 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 5.2% 13.1% 69.8% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.