Race 8A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Mariner Fagan 22.1% 19.2% 16.9% 12.7% 10.9% 8.2% 4.9% 2.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Benton Amthor 18.5% 18.2% 17.9% 13.0% 10.1% 9.3% 5.4% 4.4% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stewart Gurnell 6.5% 7.2% 9.3% 9.4% 10.7% 10.4% 12.8% 10.4% 8.8% 8.0% 3.8% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Parker Purrington 5.3% 6.3% 7.1% 9.3% 11.0% 9.3% 10.2% 11.0% 10.3% 9.9% 6.7% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Tanner Kelly 8.9% 9.2% 9.3% 11.9% 9.3% 9.6% 12.5% 8.5% 9.0% 6.6% 3.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Brian Fox 5.4% 4.0% 6.3% 6.7% 7.7% 9.2% 9.5% 11.0% 12.8% 10.0% 10.0% 6.1% 1.3% 0.0%
Oscar MacGillivray 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 7.3% 6.7% 8.4% 8.9% 11.5% 11.3% 12.5% 10.4% 5.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Lily Flack 2.1% 2.6% 3.2% 3.8% 3.5% 4.7% 6.2% 8.1% 9.4% 14.2% 15.5% 20.9% 5.8% 0.0%
Owen Hennessey 17.4% 17.7% 14.3% 12.4% 12.1% 9.9% 5.9% 5.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
John Patrick Panarella 5.0% 5.5% 4.0% 7.0% 7.4% 9.9% 10.0% 10.8% 10.9% 10.2% 10.3% 6.5% 2.5% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 3.1% 3.8% 5.2% 3.7% 7.1% 9.2% 9.9% 16.5% 24.2% 12.7% 0.0%
Christopher Magno 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 3.1% 3.8% 5.2% 3.7% 7.1% 9.2% 9.9% 16.5% 24.2% 12.7% 0.0%
John Vail 1.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.9% 5.7% 5.4% 8.2% 8.1% 8.7% 13.0% 16.1% 17.1% 6.1% 0.0%
Parker Bunting 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 1.8% 1.3% 2.8% 3.2% 5.9% 12.5% 69.3% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.