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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.92vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+1.31vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.93+3.59vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.06-0.24vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.63+2.54vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.09+3.01vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+2.12vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.11-1.88vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.22-3.15vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.63-2.50vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.59-0.79vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-4.53vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.59-2.79vs Predicted
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14Catholic University of America-0.35-2.01vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.73-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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3.31Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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6.59Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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3.76SUNY Maritime College3.060.2%1st Place
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7.54Georgetown University1.630.0%1st Place
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9.01SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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9.12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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6.12Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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7.5Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.21Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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10.21Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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11.99Catholic University of America-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.61William and Mary-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 16.5% | 19.5% | 16.0% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 24.6% | 18.0% | 17.9% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 17.4% | 20.1% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Patrick Panarella | 3.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| John Vail | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Lily Flack | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.6% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Clare Wagner | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 30.0% | 32.3% | 0.0% |
| Parker Bunting | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 20.1% | 51.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.