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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.41+6.15vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.73+7.70vs Predicted
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32.64+3.27vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+3.77vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+1.73vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.91-0.72vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.69+2.66vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.47-1.36vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.52-2.50vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.20+1.74vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.18+0.64vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.14+0.07vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.67+0.14vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.40-7.18vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College-0.37+0.99vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.61-2.47vs Predicted
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17Yale University2.31-9.57vs Predicted
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18Boston University0.72-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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9.7Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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6.272.640.1%1st Place
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7.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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6.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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5.28Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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9.66University of Vermont1.690.0%1st Place
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6.64Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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6.5Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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11.74Roger Williams University1.200.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Rhode Island1.180.0%1st Place
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12.07Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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13.14Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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6.82Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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15.99Middlebury College-0.370.0%1st Place
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13.53Salve Regina University0.610.0%1st Place
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7.43Yale University2.310.1%1st Place
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12.96Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Bayless | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Dana Haig | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Emily Bornarth | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline James | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Cordelia Burn | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payton Thompson | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michaela ODonnell | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 3.8% |
| Meghan Haviland | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
| Ashley Arruda | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 11.3% |
| Talia Toland | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lucie Rochat | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 49.9% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 16.1% | 13.8% |
| Megan Grimes | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.