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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.52+5.75vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.40+5.14vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+5.02vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.18+7.42vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.41+1.91vs Predicted
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62.64+0.18vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.31+0.27vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.73+1.41vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.69+0.64vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College1.14+1.93vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-4.15vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.47-4.95vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.20-1.67vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.91-8.92vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University0.67-1.65vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.61-2.40vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.72-3.76vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-0.37-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.75Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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7.14Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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8.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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11.42University of Rhode Island1.180.0%1st Place
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6.91Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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6.182.640.1%1st Place
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7.27Yale University2.310.1%1st Place
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9.41Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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9.64University of Vermont1.690.0%1st Place
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11.93Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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7.05Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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11.33Roger Williams University1.200.0%1st Place
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5.08Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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13.35Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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13.6Salve Regina University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.24Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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15.84Middlebury College-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Thompson | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Talia Toland | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Haviland | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Caroline Bayless | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Dana Haig | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Grimes | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Caroline James | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 4.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Cordelia Burn | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michaela ODonnell | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 3.7% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 14.8% | 15.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ashley Arruda | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 12.8% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 17.5% | 13.3% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 15.0% | 12.5% |
| Lucie Rochat | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 17.8% | 47.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.