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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+3.53vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+8.02vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.07+5.25vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.46+2.49vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.95+3.48vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.77+3.21vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+0.75vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.50+2.21vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.52+1.22vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.28-2.61vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.17+0.71vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.45+2.32vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-2.72vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University1.16-2.70vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-5.72vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.70-10.28vs Predicted
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17Harvard University1.69-7.33vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-0.52-1.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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10.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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8.25Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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6.49Brown University2.460.1%1st Place
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8.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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9.21Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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10.21Boston College1.500.0%1st Place
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10.22Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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7.39Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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11.71University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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14.32University of Vermont0.450.0%1st Place
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10.28Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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11.3Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
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9.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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5.72Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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9.67Harvard University1.690.0%1st Place
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16.17Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 17.4% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Annie Buelt | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Shanahan | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 5.1% |
| Madeline Kerr | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 23.7% | 21.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 4.4% |
| Julia Wyatt | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 12.0% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 17.0% | 57.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.