Race 4A

old-guard-owen

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Alan Palmer 22.1% 16.9% 13.6% 12.5% 10.4% 7.0% 4.9% 5.0% 3.0% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Aswad 5.6% 7.1% 6.8% 7.5% 6.9% 6.3% 7.3% 8.2% 7.0% 7.7% 7.3% 7.2% 6.6% 4.6% 2.8% 1.1%
William Hutchings 6.4% 6.3% 7.0% 6.3% 6.7% 7.9% 8.6% 6.3% 8.8% 8.4% 9.4% 6.1% 4.7% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Halsey Richartz 6.2% 9.7% 8.2% 8.8% 7.1% 8.4% 7.7% 8.7% 7.6% 7.1% 6.2% 5.7% 4.9% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Cam Cullman 10.2% 10.1% 11.4% 10.2% 9.3% 9.2% 7.4% 6.4% 7.7% 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2%
Philip Alley 5.9% 4.0% 5.8% 7.7% 7.2% 7.0% 7.6% 8.2% 7.0% 7.6% 7.0% 7.6% 7.0% 6.4% 2.9% 1.1%
Matt Johnson 6.7% 6.8% 6.0% 5.8% 7.4% 7.8% 5.9% 7.9% 8.0% 8.0% 7.6% 6.7% 7.5% 5.5% 2.1% 0.3%
John Wallace 4.1% 5.4% 6.0% 5.0% 5.9% 6.7% 4.7% 7.1% 8.3% 7.6% 7.8% 10.0% 7.9% 6.8% 5.7% 1.0%
Connor Needham 7.1% 7.4% 6.9% 8.6% 6.7% 8.0% 8.5% 6.8% 8.1% 7.6% 7.1% 5.9% 5.4% 3.4% 1.9% 0.6%
Benjamin Bainbridge 7.8% 6.3% 8.4% 7.1% 7.7% 7.5% 10.0% 7.9% 8.9% 8.2% 7.0% 4.4% 4.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Billy Hines 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 4.2% 3.2% 4.5% 4.5% 3.3% 4.8% 6.5% 8.7% 10.8% 16.5% 15.9% 6.5%
Gene Merewether 0.9% 0.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.5% 3.2% 3.8% 4.5% 7.9% 11.7% 27.4% 27.8%
Coleman Bowen 7.5% 9.6% 8.9% 6.9% 9.9% 8.8% 7.3% 8.1% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.4% 3.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2%
Ryan White 3.1% 3.5% 3.1% 4.9% 3.9% 4.7% 6.7% 5.6% 6.0% 6.0% 8.7% 10.4% 11.2% 11.8% 7.8% 2.6%
James Allsopp 3.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 4.8% 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 5.2% 7.0% 8.0% 9.5% 11.0% 12.6% 8.2% 2.0%
Alexander Lovo 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 3.1% 3.0% 4.2% 6.0% 20.6% 55.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.