← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+6.36vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania1.88+4.94vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University1.25+6.62vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College1.09+5.82vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University0.73+6.36vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.05+4.15vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania0.84+4.07vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.90-1.37vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+1.30vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-2.86vs Predicted
-
11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-2.71vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University1.05-1.50vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University1.93-6.54vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University0.38-1.51vs Predicted
-
15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-6.58vs Predicted
-
16Cornell University1.19-6.36vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37-1.70vs Predicted
-
18SUNY Maritime College1.16-8.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
-
6.94University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
-
9.62Cornell University1.250.0%1st Place
-
9.82SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
-
11.36Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
-
10.15Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
-
11.07University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
-
6.63Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
10.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
-
7.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
-
8.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
-
10.5Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
-
6.46Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
12.49Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
-
8.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
-
9.64Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
-
15.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
-
9.5SUNY Maritime College1.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Stackpoole | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| John Vail | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 7.7% |
| Jack Merrill | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Amelia Popp | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Ella Withington | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Camille McGriff | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Griffin Sisk | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 13.6% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 46.9% |
| Gannon Troutman | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.