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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+6.09vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54+6.29vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+3.93vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+4.39vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+1.63vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.93+0.59vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania0.84+4.07vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.16+1.61vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.05+1.17vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.73+1.78vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.38+1.89vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-1.35vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.19-3.58vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.09-4.31vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.25-5.68vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-8.84vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.05-6.74vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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8.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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6.93University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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8.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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6.63Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.59Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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11.07University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
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9.61SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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10.17Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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11.78Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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12.89Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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10.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
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9.42Cornell University1.190.1%1st Place
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9.69SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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9.32Cornell University1.250.1%1st Place
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7.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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10.26Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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15.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Withington | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Camille McGriff | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Amelia Popp | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 8.7% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| John Vail | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Griffin Sisk | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Laura Smith | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 14.0% | 44.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.