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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+6.15vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+5.29vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+3.69vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+4.40vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.88+1.76vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.05+4.22vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania0.84+4.03vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.90-1.38vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-0.96vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.19-0.16vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.25-1.50vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.38+1.11vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.73-1.69vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.09-4.31vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.05-4.82vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.16-6.25vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-6.60vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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7.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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6.69Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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6.76University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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10.22Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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11.03University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
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6.62Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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9.84Cornell University1.190.1%1st Place
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9.5Cornell University1.250.1%1st Place
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13.11Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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11.31Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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9.69SUNY Maritime College1.090.1%1st Place
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10.18Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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9.75SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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10.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
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15.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Withington | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| Amelia Popp | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 5.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 9.7% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Camille McGriff | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Seth Rizika | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 15.7% | 19.0% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 6.7% |
| John Vail | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| Laura Smith | 1.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 42.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.