← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+6.33vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College1.09+8.27vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College1.16+6.92vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University1.90+2.64vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+1.80vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54+2.08vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania1.88-0.26vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+0.40vs Predicted
-
9Cornell University1.93-2.56vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+0.55vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University1.05-0.68vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University0.38+1.12vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University1.25-3.78vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37+0.90vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University0.73-3.52vs Predicted
-
16Cornell University1.05-5.80vs Predicted
-
17Cornell University1.19-7.28vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania0.84-7.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
-
10.27SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
-
9.92SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
-
6.64Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
6.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
-
8.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
-
6.74University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
-
8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
-
6.44Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
10.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
-
10.32Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
-
13.12Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
-
9.22Cornell University1.250.1%1st Place
-
14.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
-
11.48Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
-
10.2Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
-
9.72Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
-
10.86University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| John Vail | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Ella Withington | 9.7% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Camille McGriff | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.5% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% |
| Griffin Sisk | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 19.6% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 41.4% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 7.4% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Amelia Popp | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.