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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.09+9.19vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+5.27vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+3.94vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.16+5.66vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+1.65vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+4.30vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+1.47vs Predicted
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8Cornell University0.38+4.69vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.25+0.33vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.19-0.16vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.73+0.63vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37+3.39vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-4.99vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-7.35vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.05-4.85vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.93-9.39vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania0.84-5.83vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.05-7.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.19SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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7.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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6.94University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.66SUNY Maritime College1.160.1%1st Place
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6.65Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
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8.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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12.69Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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9.33Cornell University1.250.0%1st Place
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9.84Cornell University1.190.1%1st Place
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11.63Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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15.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
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8.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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6.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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10.15Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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6.61Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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11.17University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
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10.05Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Vail | 4.1% | 2.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gannon Troutman | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 10.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 16.5% | 13.6% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 8.9% |
| Laura Smith | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 47.5% |
| Camille McGriff | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Ella Withington | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Jack Merrill | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Amelia Popp | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 4.9% |
| Griffin Sisk | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.