← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+6.26vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+5.40vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University1.90+3.94vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University1.05+6.18vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania1.88+1.90vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.05+4.34vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University0.38+5.91vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College1.09+2.04vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-0.83vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University1.25-0.30vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University1.74-3.45vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-3.02vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-2.75vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University1.93-7.52vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Maritime College1.16-5.13vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37-0.70vs Predicted
-
17Cornell University0.73-5.25vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania0.84-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
-
7.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
-
6.94Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
10.18Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
-
6.9University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
-
10.34Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
-
12.91Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
-
10.04SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
-
8.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
-
9.7Cornell University1.250.1%1st Place
-
7.55Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
-
8.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
-
10.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
-
6.48Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
9.87SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
-
15.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
-
11.75Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
-
11.0University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Withington | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Sisk | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.0% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 17.0% | 13.8% |
| John Vail | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| Camille McGriff | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 5.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Rocco Cappetta | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.6% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| Laura Smith | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 47.0% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.6% |
| Amelia Popp | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.