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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+6.42vs Predicted
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2Cornell University0.38+11.25vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+3.84vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.74+3.34vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.88+1.86vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania0.84+5.14vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+1.61vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.05+2.25vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.05+1.28vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.09+0.39vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.25-1.37vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.90-4.90vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-6.10vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.73-2.77vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-4.61vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.16-6.06vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-8.67vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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13.25Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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6.84Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.34Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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6.86University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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11.14University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
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8.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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10.25Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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10.28Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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10.39SUNY Maritime College1.090.1%1st Place
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9.63Cornell University1.250.1%1st Place
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7.1Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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11.23Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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10.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
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9.94SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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8.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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15.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Rocco Cappetta | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.8% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Amelia Popp | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| John Vail | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ella Withington | 10.1% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Gannon Troutman | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% |
| Camille McGriff | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 44.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.