← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania1.88+6.10vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+5.13vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+5.80vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University1.05+6.19vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University1.05+5.22vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University0.73+5.68vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University1.90-0.20vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University1.74-0.62vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+1.46vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College1.09+0.38vs Predicted
-
11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-3.64vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University1.25-2.12vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.37+2.06vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College1.16-4.46vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University1.93-8.39vs Predicted
-
16University of Pennsylvania0.84-4.78vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-8.60vs Predicted
-
18Cornell University0.38-5.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.1University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
-
7.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
-
8.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
-
10.19Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
-
10.22Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
-
11.68Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
-
6.8Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
7.38Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
-
10.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
-
10.38SUNY Maritime College1.090.1%1st Place
-
7.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
-
9.88Cornell University1.250.0%1st Place
-
15.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.370.0%1st Place
-
9.54SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
-
6.61Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
11.22University of Pennsylvania0.840.0%1st Place
-
8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
-
12.78Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 7.7% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ella Withington | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Rocco Cappetta | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| John Vail | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 3.4% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 44.9% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Amelia Popp | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 6.8% |
| Camille McGriff | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.