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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.06+6.88vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08+9.65vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.09+4.84vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.54+1.93vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22-1.00vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.50+0.15vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+0.39vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.17+2.95vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23-1.95vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.52-0.01vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University0.47+2.58vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.010.00vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-1.18vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.22-7.08vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.40-8.50vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.79-3.52vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.09-2.28vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.21-3.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88Georgetown University2.060.1%1st Place
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11.65St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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7.84Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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5.93Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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4.0Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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6.15Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.39St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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10.95U. S. Naval Academy1.170.0%1st Place
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7.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.1%1st Place
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9.99Old Dominion University1.520.0%1st Place
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13.58Georgetown University0.470.0%1st Place
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12.0Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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11.82St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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6.92U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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6.5U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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12.48Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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14.72Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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14.15Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas McCann | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Max Kleha | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 21.1% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ziman | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Keiran James Golden | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Glenn | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Spencer Kriegstein | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| Megan Geith | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% |
| Lily Flack | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6.4% |
| Tanner Kelly | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| David Grace | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 31.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.