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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+2.65vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.06+5.12vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23+3.63vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+2.93vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.54+0.53vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.17+4.63vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.50-1.26vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University0.47+4.44vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.40-2.79vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08+0.65vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.22-4.18vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-0.33vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-1.61vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.52-4.72vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.01-4.05vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-2.48vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.09-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.65Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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7.12Georgetown University2.060.1%1st Place
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6.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.1%1st Place
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6.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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5.53Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Naval Academy1.170.0%1st Place
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5.74Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
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12.44Georgetown University0.470.0%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.65St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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11.67Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.39St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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9.28Old Dominion University1.520.0%1st Place
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10.95Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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13.52Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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13.84Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 24.2% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas McCann | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Keiran James Golden | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.6% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ziman | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Kriegstein | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Max Kleha | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% |
| Tanner Kelly | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| David Grace | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.0% |
| Lily Flack | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| John Glenn | 2.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Megan Geith | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 5.7% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 17.9% | 22.7% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 11.9% | 16.8% | 30.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.